Pronóstico de la tuberculosis en Ciego de Ávila

Authors

  • Odalys Rodríguez Martín
  • Magaly Esperanza Leal Moreira
  • Mirenna Reina Alejo
  • Noelia Basulto Montejo
  • Belkys Sánchez Gómez

Abstract

El análisis de series temporales es de vital importancia en la vigilancia y predicción de
enfermedades en salud. La Organización Mundial de Salud puso en marcha la nueva estrategia
“Alto a la Tuberculosis”. La estrategia se aplicará a lo largo de los próximos 10 años, para
detener la Tuberculosis en el período 2006-2015. El objetivo de este estudio fue pronosticar el
comportamiento de la tuberculosis en la provincia Ciego de Ávila para el 2011-2012 y poner
los resultados a disposición de los directivos para la toma de decisiones oportunas para
solventar los problemas que afectan a la población. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo
longitudinal retrospectivo. Se empleó la serie temporal de tuberculosis con frecuencia mensual
2000-2010 y anual de 1990 al 2010. Para la obtención del pronóstico se empleó el método de
alisamiento exponencial con dos y tres parámetros. Se pronosticó una estimación puntual de
12.7 en el 2011 y 12.9 en el 2012 con estrechos intervalos de predicción. El método empleado
resultó adecuado, estimándose un incremento en la incidencia de tuberculosis.

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How to Cite

1.
Rodríguez Martín O, Leal Moreira ME, Reina Alejo M, Basulto Montejo N, Sánchez Gómez B. Pronóstico de la tuberculosis en Ciego de Ávila. Mediciego [Internet]. 2011 Jul. 1 [cited 2025 Dec. 31];17(2). Available from: https://revmediciego.sld.cu/index.php/mediciego/article/view/1962

Issue

Vol. 17 No. 2 (2011)

Section

Original article

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