Modelo de probabilidad de muerte por peritonitis secundaria

Reinaldo Elías Sierra; Max Santiago Bordelois Abdo; Tania Choo Ubals; Karla Sucet Elías Armas

Authors

Reinaldo Elías Sierra Hospital Dr. Agostinho Neto https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4909-168X
Max Santiago Bordelois Abdo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8730-0772
Tania Choo Ubals https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0439-0045
Karla Sucet Elías Armas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7159-3072

Abstract

Introduction: secondary peritonitis are frequent and have a high lethality.

Objective: to corroborate the practical value of the probability model of death from secondary peritonitis, previously validated by specialists.

Methods: a prospective cohort-type epidemiological risk study was carried out in four stages at the Hospital “Dr. Agostinho Netoˮ, in 2016 and 2017. The population was made up of all patients with secondary peritonitis, grouped according to whether they were discharged dead (cases n =18) or alive (controls n =58). The variables most related to the probability that the patient died were specified. The absolute risk of each variable was calculated. The designed model was validated in workshops with specialists and, later, applied in healthcare practice. The ethical precepts were fulfilled.

Results: the absolute risk of the variables most associated with the prognosis of dying were: multi-organ failure (17,8 %), fecaloid peritoneal fluid (7,8 %) and septic shock (7,3 %). All specialists (100,0 %) evaluated the model as adequate, and its application corroborated its level of precision in terms of sensitivity (92,8 % CI 95,0 % 75,0-100,0 p <0,01) and specificity (98,8 % CI 95,0 % 77,8-100.0 p <0,001).

Conclusions: the practical value of the model of probability of death due to secondary peritonitis designed was corroborated, previous validation of its scientific-methodological relevance by specialists.