Temporal and spatial behavior of foodborne disease outbreaks in the province of Ciego de Avila
Abstract
Method: An investigation of chronological series of foodborne disease outbreaks in Ciego de Avila province (2000-2012 and 2013) was carried out with the aim of characterizing two of the components: trend and seasonality, also predict their behavior for 2014 with a reliability of 95% and assessed the spatial behavior of this event in the years of study and it takes as socio-geographic spaces the province municipalities. The universe was made up of 144 foodborne disease outbreaks reported in the province during the years of series for months and municipalities.
Result: The frequency of outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Ciego de Avila during 2000-2013 showed an irregular behavior; in January and August of 2013 the frequency of outbreaks surpassed what it was expected according to the historical behavior. The series showed seasonality every 9 months.
Conclusions: The trend was slightly upward and in 2014 will be reported, with a 95% reliability, 18 outbreaks of foodborne illness, value that may be in the path of 10 to 26 events. Morón, Primero de Enero , and Ciego de Avila are designated as "high risk", Ciro Redondo, Majagua and Venezuela, "Medium risk" and the rest of them (Chambas, Bolivia, Florence and Baragua) hold the designation of 'low risk'.
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