Temporal situation and projection of acute diarrheal diseases: comparative analysis pre and post-COVID-19
Keywords:
COVID-19; dysentery; pediatrics; time series studiesAbstract
Introduction: Acute diarrheal disease is a significant cause of pediatric morbidity, the dynamics of which can be affected by disruptive situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Evaluating temporal changes and projecting trends is essential for health surveillance and management.
Objective: to describe the temporal situation of acute diarrheal diseases and their trend until 2029 in the pediatric population.
Methods: an interrupted time series study was conducted at the “Leonor Pérez” Pediatric Hospital from 2010 to 2024. The sample was non-probabilistic and based on convenience sampling, including 15,995 patients with a clinical diagnosis of acute diarrheal disease: 12,835 from 2010–2019 (pre-COVID) and 3,160 from 2022–2024 (post-COVID). The variables analyzed were: number of cases and time. The stages were compared using Standard Time Latency (SLT) decomposition of trend and seasonality and Local Estimated Scatter Plot Smoothing (LOESS) regression. Density curves and monthly medians were used to assess the seasonal pattern. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to estimate the counterfactual for 2020–2021 and project the trend for 2025–2029.
Results: following the pandemic, an increase in the number of consultations for acute diarrheal disease and seasonality were observed, with sharper peaks in June and October. Residuals showed greater dispersion due to unmodeled factors. Projections using ARIMA models up to 2029 suggested a sustained upward trend in the demand for consultations, with typical seasonal fluctuations.
Conclusions: COVID-19 caused a disruption in the epidemiological dynamics of acute diarrheal disease, with a post-pandemic increase and more pronounced seasonality. Projections indicate a steadily increasing demand in the coming years
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