Predictive survival model for the occurrence of heart failure in hypertensive patients

Abstract

Introduction: cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in the world. Much of the burden of this disease is due to high blood pressure, due to its persistence over time and the disabilities it generates.

Objective: to develop a predictive survival model for the occurrence of heart failure in hypertensive patients at the “Julio Grave de Peralta” Polyclinic, from January 2020 to January 2022.

Methods: a prospective cohort study was developed of a total of 4548 hypertensive patients after applying the inclusion criteria: patients over 19 years of age and under 65 years of age and the exclusion criteria: pregnant women, patients with mental illnesses and patients with a diagnosis of heart failure. The universe was made up of 1306 patients. The sample of 414 patients was selected through simple random sampling.

Results: 82.61 % of the patients were between 45 and 64 years old and 54.83 % were male. Family history of cardiovascular diseases was present in 267 patients, 221 patients were overweight; Cholesterol risk values predominated in 71.74 % and 57.73 % were sedentary.

Conclusions: the following were determined as predictor variables in the model: age, sedentary lifestyle, family history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, overweight and blood cholesterol. The model presented a good fit to the data.