Ciego de Ávila´s population vulnerability to COVID-19 due to poor prognostic given the prevalence of non transmisible diseases

Abstract

Introduction: Ciego de Ávila presents factors that can propitiate a new wave of COVID-19, hence the importance of identifying its vulnerable population to developing serious forms of the disease.

Objective: to analyze the distribution, according to health areas of the province, of the vulnerable population to poor prognosis in the face of COVID-19 due to the prevalence of non-communicable diseases.

Methods: a cross-sectional descriptive investigation of a geographic-epidemiological nature was carried out. Synthesis maps of vulnerability population were prepared according to the prevalence of some non-transmissible diseases: arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, cancer, bronchial asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, in the age groups from 25 to 59 years, and 60 and over, using spatial and statistical analysis, cartographic representation and geographic information systems, mainly multi-criteria evaluation techniques. The ethical precepts were fulfilled.

Results: 52,66 % of the population belonged to the group aged 25 to 59 years and 47,33 % to those aged 60 and over. Hypertension was the most prevalent disease (61,00 %). The most vulnerable health areas were the North of Ciego de Ávila (25 to 59 years old), and this one and the North of Moron (60 years and over). In both groups, the most vulnerable health areas were located in the central provincial axis.

Conclusions: in both age groups, the greatest vulnerability was concentrated in the health areas of the central provincial axis with the main population centers (Ciego de Ávila and Morón) and the fundamental migratory flows